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Mobile, Not VoIP The Big Growth Area For Voice
2007-03-16
According to analyst and consulting company, Ovum, it is cell phones and mobiles that will continue to be the darling of the voice market for the foreseeable future. And it is a trend that is driving long-term structural change in the industry as operators create partnerships in order to survive.
The Asia Pacific region, as we have heard before is where all the action is. It contains several emerging markets including India and China which are both adding mobile phone users by the millions.
By 2010, Ovum expect the region to host over 2 billion fixed and mobile voice connections, 42 per cent of the global total. 85 per cent of these voice connections will be based in emerging markets within the region, but over all an amazingly 77 per cent of them will be mobile.
But it doesn't matter whether you look at mature or emerging markets, the story is similar. In emerging markets, we will see even faster growth in mobile, but a flat market for fixed connections and revenues: as you would expect. While in developed markets, mobile growth will continue to drive fixed revenues downward.
Either way, Ovum doesn't expect VoIP to emerge as a major competitive threat to established operators in either markets until well into the next decade.
The upshot is that mobile is becoming the dominant voice platform in both kinds of markets.
David Kennedy, Research Director, Ovum Asia-Pacific, said "Fixed-mobile convergence strategies in developed markets, such as bundling and fixed-mobile convergent devices, will slow but not stop the trend. We predict that fixed voice revenue will fall by an average of 20 per cent across these markets between 2006 and 2010. Mobile revenue will grow 9 per cent, while total voice revenue will fall slightly, almost 2 per cent".
Emerging markets, including China and India, will show a different pattern. Mobile voice will grow faster than in developing countries, 67 per cent over the 2006-2010 period. Meanwhile, fixed revenues will stagnate. Total voice revenues will rise by 39 per cent. "The risk for fixed operations is that fixed voice will be sidelined as a growth product for years to come", said Kennedy.
What of the partnerships mentioned above? Well, Ovum says the trend towards consolidation of fixed and mobile operations will accelerate in developed markets throughout the Asia Pacific.
Fixed-only and mobile-only operators will need to seek partnership and acquisitions to strengthen their competitive position. Meanwhile, in emerging markets, the boundaries between fixed and mobile services will blur as operators exploit new wireless data technology to reach underserved customers, says Ovum.
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