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Spam to overtake human-issued e-mails in 2007
2007-04-16
Actually, IDC suggests that the "ark" is already here. Users have been migrating to instant messaging (IM) and voice chat (using cheap phone calls or free VoIP clients like Skype) for some time, and e-mail appears to be losing a bit of its luster as spam makes it increasingly unwieldy for business use. Users no longer trust that every message will make it through the various spam filters on the market, especially when contacting a new acquaintance with an important Word document attached.
IDC projects that spam will increase to 40 billion message in 2007. That's six or seven messages for every single person on the planet, and it will be higher than the volume of person-to-person e-mail sent this year. It will still not account for more than 50 percent of total e-mail volume, though; automated communications from businesses, charities, etc., will push the total expected number of messages to 97 billion. Of course, many of you consider those same automated communications to be quite spammy, at times.
"Spam volumes are growing faster than expected due to the success of image-based spam in bypassing antispam filters and of email sender identity spoofing in getting higher response rates," said Mark Levitt, the VP in charge of IDC's Collaborative Computing and Enterprise Workplace research. "Instant messaging, joined by free and low-cost VoIP calling, will result in slower e-mail growth, especially among teens and young adults."
IDC believes that companies need to look at e-mail as only a single facet of their total communications infrastructure, and that attention also needs to be spent on corporate IM and collaboration systems.
Although the volume of spam is rising, customers are not necessarily seeing much more of it in their client of choice. Filter technology has not stood still, either, and the vast majority of spam e-mails now end up in "spam" or "bulk mail" folders where they are rarely seen. As long as spammers continue to hawk products that our friends and acquaintances talk about rarely (how many of your friends e-mail you with hot tips about where to score sex-enhancing horny goat weed?), the Bayesian filters so popular with users should remain relatively effective. Emphasis on relatively.
By Nate Anderson
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