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Taking a punt on Vonage IPO 2006-07-18
Last week, analysts on Wall Street castigated the Vonage IPO, effectively driving the price down from 17 USD a share, to under 14 USD in three days. The price is now recovering a little despite their broadside. The analysts` highly televised arguments were around Wall Street`s judgement that Vonage had the wrong technology (VoIP), the wrong business model (internet), the wrong price (too high), the wrong management team (deemed too weak), and the wrong strategy (going for growth over short-term profitability). I`ve never seen such Wall Street consensus since they advised us to invest in what became the internet bubble. But at that time, although the sentiment was pitched with the same passion, it was going in the opposite direction! So being bloody minded, I feel Vonage may be worth a punt. Truthfully, us technologists have always been totally defeated by Wall Street`s logic, or what appears to be a lack of it. Let`s look at a few things the frenzied Wall Street analysts missed in their condemnation of Vonage. First, Vonage grew its customer base from around 100,000 to over 1.5m in three years - a fifteen fold market increase. And it did so without missing a beat. Secondly, on recently entering the European market, Vonage has started to become a global telephone player, successfully competing in a marketplace now dominated by geography entrapped, high priced local telephone companies. Thirdly, Vonage plays in a well articulated niche within the telephone market - home and small business - using its low cost call tariff to dramatically undercut the incumbents` pricing. And its high feature product (including bundled internet and email access to voice mail) puts them to shame.
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